Coronavirus 2019-nCoV Covid-19

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Coronavirus Predictions for the World, 2019-nCoV
(Covid-19) Projected Predictions 3-9 day average
Patient Zero 11th Nov. to Chinas unknown 4000+ cases.
DateProjected CasesProjected DeathsReal CasesReal Deaths
14.03.2020142,5345,392142,5345,392
15.03.2020154,1346,022153,5175,735
16.03.2020166,6736,725167,5156,606
17.03.2020180,2327,510179,1117,426
18.03.2020194,8938,387191,1277,807
19.03.2020210,7489,366209,8398,778
20.03.2020232,48110,460234,0739,840
21.03.2020264,55411,681266,07311,184
22.03.2020292,14613,045292,14212,784
23.03.2020327,32614,568332,93014,510
24.03.2020366,74216,304372,75716,231
25.03.2020410,79218,247414,17918,440
26.03.2020460,13320,422462,68420,834
27.03.2020506,57222,856509,16423,335
28.03.2020567,56825,580571,67826,494
29.03.2020627,71228,629634,83529,957
30.03.2020686,15932,041693,22433,106
31.03.2020750,04835,860750,89036,405
01.04.2020816,13640,134823,62640,598
02.04.2020888,04744,917896,45045,526
03.04.2020966,29450,270972,30350,322
04.04.20201,051,43556,2611,051,63556,985
05.04.20201,144,07862,967
06.04.20201,244,88570,471
07.04.20201,354,57378,870
08.04.20201,473,92788,270
09.04.20201,603,79698,790
10.04.20201,745,109110,564
11.04.20201,898,873123,742
12.04.20202,066,185138,489
13.04.20202,248,240154,995
14.04.20202,446,335173,467
15.04.20202,661,885194,142
16.04.20202,896,427217,280
17.04.20203,151,635243,176
18.04.20203,429,330272,158
19.04.20203,731,493304,595
20.04.20204,060,280340,897
21.04.20204,418,037381,526
22.04.20204,807,316426,997
23.04.20205,230,896477,887
24.04.20205,691,797534,843
25.04.20206,193,309598,587
26.04.20206,739,010669,928
27.04.20207,332,793749,771
28.04.20207,978,896839,130
29.04.20208,681,927939,140
30.04.20209,446,9041,051,069
01.05.202010,279,2831,176,337
02.05.202011,185,0051,316,536
03.05.202012,170,5311,473,444
04.05.202013,242,8931,649,052
05.05.202014,409,7431,845,590
06.05.202015,679,4052,065,552
07.05.202017,060,9392,311,729
08.05.202018,564,2012,587,246
09.05.202020,199,9182,895,600
10.05.202021,979,7613,240,704
11.05.202023,916,4283,626,938
12.05.202026,023,7374,059,205
13.05.202028,316,7244,542,990
14.05.202030,811,7495,084,434
15.05.202033,526,6145,690,408
16.05.202036,480,6906,368,604
17.05.202039,695,0547,127,629
18.05.202043,192,6397,977,116
19.05.202046,998,4028,927,846
20.05.202051,139,4959,991,887
21.05.202055,645,46611,182,743
 24.03.2020 Above high deaths to cases is a reflection the world is drastically failing to test(including or excluding Italy). No test kits are needed for clinically diagnosed, clinically diagnosis was needed yesterday as today is too late. The world is emerging as the epicenter and Africa is yet to come. Note: Mondays usually have low testing data due to the weekends, new test kits(15-45min depending on country) in time to come might turn this around as they become more mainstream?

31.03.2020 The projected deaths are under the average of real deaths, and can only be turned around if the world leans more towards Draconian lockdown, finding the growth rate areas and containing them. Then the projected figures will be decreased. Please don't bury your head in the sand as a means to cope, please stand up and save love ones or your neighbour love ones. We must be proactive. Even in the worst of times like WW2, the Queen Elizabeth helped as a mechanic no mater how great or small you are.


Coronavirus Predictions for China, 2019-nCoV
(Covid-19) Projected Predictions 3-9 day average
Patient Zero 11th Nov. to Chinas unknown 4000+ cases.
DateProjected ConfirmedProjected DeathsConfirmedDeathsQuarantined
23.01.202083025830258,420
24.01.20201,287411,2874113,967
25.01.20201,975561,9755621,556
26.01.20202,744802,7448030,453
27.01.20204,5151064,51510644,132
28.01.20206,0571326,05713259,990
29.01.20207,7831707,78317081,947
30.01.20209,6922139,692213102,427
31.01.202011,79125911,791259118,478
1.02.202014,38030414,380304137,594
2.02.202017,20536117,205361152,700
3.02.202020,44042520,440425171,329
4.02.202024,32449024,324490185,555
5.02.202028,01856328,018563186,354
6.02.202031,16163731,161637186,045
7.02.202034,54672234,546722189,660
8.02.202037,19881137,198811188,183
9.02.202040,17190840,171908187,518
10.02.202042,6381,01642,6381,016187,728
11.02.202044,6531,11344,6531,113185,037
12.02.202059,8041,36759,8041,367181,386
13.02.202063,8511,38063,8511,380177,984
14.02.202066,4921,52366,4921,523169,039
15.02.202068,5001,66568,5001,665158,764
16.02.202070,5481,77070,5481,770150,539
17.02.202072,4361,77672,4361,868141,552
18.02.202074,1852,00474,1852,004135,881
19.02.202074,5762,11874,5762,118126,363
20.02.202075,4652,23675,4652,236120,302
21.02.202076,2882,34576,2882,345113,564
22.02.202076,9362,44276,9362,442106,089
23.02.202077,1502,59277,1502,59297,481
24.02.202077,6582,66377,6582,66387,920
25.02.202078,0642,71578,0642,71579,108
26.02.202078,4972,74478,4972,74471,572
27.02.202078,8242,78878,8242,78865,225
28.02.202079,2512,83579,2512,83558,233
29.02.202079,8242,87079,8242,87051,856
1.03.202080,0262,91280,0262,91246,219
2.03.202080,1512,94380,1512,94340,651
3.03.202080,2702,98180,2702,98136,432
4.03.202080,4093,01280,4093,01232,870
5.03.202080,5523,04280,5523,04229,896
6.03.202080,6513,07080,6513,07026,730
7.03.202080,6953,09780,6953,09723,074
8.03.202080,7353,11980,7353,11920,146
9.03.202080,7533,13680,7543,13616,982
10.03.202080,7713,15880,7783,15814,607
11.03.202080,7893,16880,7933,16913,701
12.03.202080,8073,17980,8133,17612,161
13.03.202080,8253,19080,8243,18910,879
14.03.202080,8443,20180,8443,19910,189
15.03.202080,8623,21380,8603,2139,582
16.03.202080,8803,22480,8813,2269,351
17.03.202080,8983,23580,8943,2379,222
18.03.202080,9183,24680,9283,2459,144
Data end - 0 case in China epicenter Wuhan 18.03.2020.
All other cases are from other provences on 18.03.2020.


Interesting Facts
Confirmed % is the change from prior day to current date change in percentage. Death % is the change from prior day to current date change in percentage. The below gives a slight idea of the accuracy of the data being received each day.
DateConfirmed%Death%
24.01.20201,28755.06%4164%
25.01.20201,97553.46%5636.59%
26.01.20202,74438.94%8042.86%
27.01.20204,51564.54%10632.5%
28.01.20206,05734.15%13224.53%
29.01.20207,78328.5%17028.79%
30.01.20209,69224.53%21325.29%
31.01.202011,79121.66%25921.6%
1.02.202014,38021.96%30417.37%
2.02.202017,20519.65%36118.75%
3.02.202020,44018.8%42517.73%
4.02.202024,32419.0%49015.29%
5.02.202028,01815.19%56314.9%
6.02.202031,16111.22%63713.14%
7.02.202034,54610.86%72213.34%
8.02.202037,1987.68%81112.33%
9.02.202040,1717.99%90811.96%
10.02.202042,6386.14%1,01611.89%
11.02.202044,6534.73%1,1139.55%
12.02.202059,80433.93%1,36722.82%
13.02.202063,8516.77%1,3800.95%
14.02.202066,4924.14%1,52310.36%
15.02.202068,5003.02%1,6659.32%
16.02.202070,5482.99%1,7706.31%
17.02.202072,4362.68%1,8685.54%
18.02.202074,1852.41%2,0047.28%
19.02.202074,5760.53%2,1185.69%
20.02.202075,4651.19%2,2365.57%
21.02.202076,2881.09%2,3454.87%
22.02.202076,9360.85%2,4424.14%
23.02.202077,1500.28%2,5926.14%
24.02.202077,6580.66%2,6632.74%
25.02.202078,0640.52%2,7151.95%
26.02.202078,4970.55%2,7441.07%
27.02.202078,8240.42%2,7881.60%
28.02.202079,2510.54%2,8351.69%
29.02.202079,8240.72%2,8701.23%
1.03.202080,0260.25%2,9121.46%
2.03.202080,1510.16%2,9431.06%
3.03.202080,2700.15%2,9811.29%
4.03.202080,4090.17%3,0121.04%
5.03.202080,5520.18%3,0421.00%
6.03.202080,6510.12%3,0700.920%
7.03.202080,6950.055%3,0970.879%
8.03.202080,7350.050%3,1190.710%
9.03.202080,7540.024%3,1360.545%
10.03.202080,7780.030%3,1580.702%
11.03.202080,7930.019%3,1690.348%
12.03.202080,8130.025%3,1760.221%
13.03.202080,8240.014%3,1890.409%
14.03.202080,8440.025%3,1990.314%
15.03.202080,8600.020%3,2130.438%
16.03.202080,8810.026%3,2260.405%
17.03.202080,8940.016%3,2370.341%
18.03.202080,9280.042%3,2450.247%
Data end
25.01.2020 From the hospitalization period to death, the average estimation of median days being from 3-4 days(Bear in mind median days from first symptom to death were 14.0). We should in theory see from any large spike from the Confirmed %, see a spike in the deaths %, at 1-7 days later. The 64.54% would appear to represent a abnormality in the data, Chinese state media have reported test kit shortages and processing bottlenecks (source New York Times Feb. 2, 2020. Wuhan Coronavirus Looks Increasingly Like a Pandemic, Experts Say).

2.02.2020 Extra Info: The median days from first symptom to death were 14.0. The median time from onset of symptoms to first hospital admission was 7.0 days (4.0-8.0), to shortness of breath was 8.0 days (5.0-13.0), to ARDS was 9.0 days (8.0-14.0), to mechanical ventilation was 10.5 days (7.0-14.0), and to ICU admission was 10.5 days.

12.02.2020 and onwards, are now reporting both clinically diagnosed and lab-confirmed. China's released doubled up data on the 12th, creating bad data for deaths from 12th to 13th as the balancing it out period on 13th.

If you have fever, cough and difficulty breathing seek medical care asap, this info could change to your area being anyone with flu symptoms or cough or fever or loss of smell to self quarantine. Due to the info available on coronavirus changing so frequently, please see WHO Coronavirus Q&A info page on the latest and up to date info.

8.03.2020 China has won the fight, paving a way for the rest of the world. The sooner the world mass quarantine itself, the sooner this ends. With 20% cases are serious and out of that 20%, 6% is critical, the governments have no choice but they must comply sooner or later before the deaths skyrocket by the health systems being overwhelmed. The only short term golden opportunity the world has is slipping away rapidly. The most humane thing any country can do right now is mass quarantine any heavily infected areas(cases under 100-2000), and 2-3 months later be clear of the virus(needs to be 6mths refer 27.03.2020 bottom of page), before it escalates and that time frame be extended to 6 months(2x refer 27.03.2020) or beyond. Mass quarantine must happen, it's a question of is it going to be sooner to save many lives and economies recover much sooner. Or procrastinate with a heavy death toll and economies risk of going into another 2nd recession for end June, or worse a great depression (not depression) being a very strong as an outlook if all wait till it's too late. Note, China used masks, and tcm on mild cases with the later a 33% improvement. China also noted 2 distinct strains, refer bottom of the page here (The Mutation of 2 strains).

12.03.2020 World Health Organization
The World Health Organization has declared the global coronavirus crisis is now a pandemic, expressing alarm both about mounting infections and slow government responses. "We have called every day for countries to take urgent and aggressive action. We have rung the alarm bell loud and clear," WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in Geneva overnight. "All countries can still change the course of this pandemic. If countries detect, test, treat, isolate, trace and mobilize their people in the response".

14.03.2020 World Health Organization - Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus
"Europe has now become the epicenter of the pandemic, with more reported cases and deaths than the rest of the world combined, apart from China". "Do not just let this fire burn." Not testing alone. Not contact tracing alone. Not quarantine alone. Not social distancing alone. Do it all. Any country that looks at the experience of other countries with large epidemics and thinks “that won’t happen to us” is making a deadly mistake. It can happen to any country. The experience of China, the Republic of Korea, Singapore and others clearly demonstrates that aggressive testing and contact tracing, combined with social distancing measures and community mobilization, can prevent infections and save lives".

"There are simple, effective things we can all do to reduce the risk of infection for ourselves and those around us. Clean your hands regularly with an alcohol-based rub or soap and water. Cover your mouth and nose with a disposable tissue or your elbow if you cough or sneeze. Stay home and self-isolate from others if you’re sick or feel unwell. Avoid close contact of 1 meter with people who are unwell. Avoid unnecessary travel and large social gatherings. Comply with the advice of your local or national health authority. Find and share reliable information".
"Support World Health Organization, funds raised will be used to coordinate the response, to buy masks, gloves, gowns and goggles for health workers, to buy diagnostic tests etc. To give to the COVID-19 Solidarity Response Fund, go to who.int, and look for the orange “Donate” button at the top of the page @ www.who.int/Covid19ResponseFund."
End of WHO

19.03.2020
Full CDC China report breakdown, Age, Patients, deaths, and case fatality rates.
China case statistics on 72,314 Cases, February 11, 2020, CDC
Confirmed cases: 44,672 (61.78%)
Suspected cases: 16,186 (22.38%)
Diagnosed cases: 10,567 (14.61%)
Asymptomatic cases: 889 (1.23%)

Age distribution (N=44,672)
≥80 years: 3% (1408 cases)
30-79 years: 87% (38,680 cases)
20-29 years: 8% (3619 cases)
10-19 years: 1% (549 cases)
≤10 years: 1% (416 cases)

Spectrum of disease (N=44,415)
Mild: 81.41% (36,160 cases)
Severe: 13.89% (6168 cases)
Critical: 4.70% (2087 cases)


Case-fatality rate
2.3% (1023 of 44,672 confirmed cases)
14.8% in patients aged ≥80 years (208 of 1408)
8.0% in patients aged 70-79 years (312 of 3918)
49.0% in critical cases (1023 of 2087)

Health care personnel infected
3.8% (1716 of 44,672)
63% in Wuhan (1080 of 1716)
14.8% cases classified as severe or critical (247 of 1668)
5 deaths

Notes: 62% diagnosis based on positive viral nucleic acid test result on throat swab. 22% diagnosis based on symptoms and exposures only, no test was performed because testing capacity is insufficient to meet current needs. 15% this designation is being used in Hubei Province only; in these cases, no test was performed but diagnosis was made based on symptoms, exposures, and presence of lung imaging features consistent with coronavirus pneumonia. 1% diagnosis by positive viral nucleic acid test result but lacking typical symptoms including fever, dry cough, and fatigue. COVID-19 rapidly spread from a single city to the entire country in just 30 days, and quickly overwhelmed health and public health services in China.

19.03.2020 World Health Organization - SOLIDARITY trial
Multiple small trials with different methodologies may not give us the clear, strong evidence we need about which treatments help to save lives. WHO and its partners are therefore organizing a study in many countries in which some of these untested treatments are compared with each other. This large, international study is designed to generate the robust data we need, to show which treatments are the most effective. We have called this study the SOLIDARITY trial. The SOLIDARITY trial provides simplified procedures to enable even hospitals that have been overloaded to participate. Many countries have already confirmed that they will join the SOLIDARITY trial - Argentina, Bahrain, Canada, France, Iran, Norway, South Africa, Spain, Switzerland and Thailand - and I trust many more will join. (1.04,2020 74 countries have either joined the trial or are in the process of joining)

20.03.2020 Appears kit testing reagents in Italy have collapsed since hospitals had already been overwhelmed? The death rate has accelerated at a higher rate than it has been for the past few weeks for some unknown reason.

Patient Zero 11th November to China's undetected 4000+ cases. Raises the question of how widely spread has the coronavirus become in the rest of the world?

Sciencemag.org for every confirmed case there are most likely 5 to 10 people in the community with undetected infections. science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221.
The race to detect the undetected cases is on sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/new-blood-tests-antibodies-could-show-true-scale-coronavirus-pandemic

27.03.2020 As many as 3-10 per cent of recovered coronavirus patients in China have tested positive again, according to medical experts.
scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3076989/coronavirus-10pc-recovered-patients-test-positive-later-say

03.04.2020 The data percentage change in totals difference per day, changes so drastically since 26.03.2020. Since 26.03.2020 new cases have wildly fluctuated from 26% all the way to 0%, high lightening the fact some serious testing kit issues or very poor data. The wild fluctuations issue is unlike anywhere else in the world where its constant and mild changes in percentages. WHO situation reports has 0% increase in cases from 29.03.2020 to 30.03.2020. All data seems completely flawed that WHO has been supplied from Australia. Its like someone put the brakes on testing or flawed data. Even with 15min test kits(usually for low number on Monday means its a 2 day test kit), why was there no massive jump on Monday 30.03.2020 or Tuesday 31.03.2020 for all the sick ones on Sunday. There will always be X amount of cases each day emerging.

Australian total cases per day
DateTotal casesDay % Change
21.03.202087323.1%
22.03.20201,08123.8%
23.03.20201,39629.1%
24.03.20201,70922.4%
25.03.20202,25231.8%
26.03.20202,79924.0%
27.03.20202,9856.6%
28.03.20203,63521.1%
29.03.20203,9669.1%
30.03.20203,9660.0%
31.03.20204,3599.9%
1.04.20204,7078.0%
Data from WHO.

02.04.2020 Signs and Symptoms CoVid-19, Coronavirus.

03.04.2020 Australian Scientists from Monash University's Biomedicine Discovery Institute (BDI) in Melbourne, Australia, with the Peter Doherty Institute of Infection and Immunity (Doherty Institute) have shown that an anti-parasitic drug already available around the world can kill the virus within 48 hours. Ivermectin, is already an FDA-approved anti-parasitic, the research now need to figure out if the safe dosages are still effective on the virus in humans.
"We found that even a single dose(via Petri dish) could essentially remove all viral RNA by 48 hours and that even at 24 hours there was a really significant reduction in it," said Dr Kylie Wagstaff.
source sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354220302011

5.04.2020 Here in Australia we are lucky still to have low numbers by the contact tracing and measures taken. The spikes from Bondi beaches and alike have settled with the data prevailing still a future growth rate. But a month ago 4.04.2020 the average in new cases per day was less than 10 per day compared to 200+ per day new cases atm and should not be looked upon as a manageable containment numbers at the current growth rate for the future as its alarmingly still very high.

Patient Zero 11th November to China's undetected 4000+ cases.
Full CDC China report breakdown, Age, Patients, deaths, and case fatality rates.
Signs and Symptoms CoVid-19, Coronavirus.


 Daily updated data on pneumonia supplied by
who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
nhc.gov.cn/yjb/s7860/new_list.shtml


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