Coronavirus 2019-nCoV Covid-19
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| Coronavirus Predictions for the World, 2019-nCoV|
(Covid-19) Projected Predictions 3-9 day average
Patient Zero 11th Nov. to China's unknown 4000+ cases.
|Date||Projected Cases||Projected Deaths||Real Cases||Real Deaths|
31.03.2020 The projected deaths are under the average of real deaths, and can only be turned around if the world leans more towards Draconian lockdown,
finding the growth rate areas and containing them. Then the projected figures will be decreased, be aware a lack of testing can cause a decline in cases
but not deaths. A drop in real cases will be reflected in the real deaths by the average means being 8 days later. If the projected average, averages out
above the real average it will then get re-adjusted on a new average trending below the real data or as close to the predicted average can be at the time.
Please don't bury your head in the sand as a means to cope, please stand up and save love ones or your neighbour loved ones. We must be proactive. Even
in the worst of times like WW2, Queen Elizabeth helped as a mechanic no matter how great or small you are.
14.04.2020 Those that have died outside of hospital from the coronavirus in the U.S. are not being clinically diagnosed if they have died from it. Appears to be the same for the U.K. with 2000 care homes, as health systems collapse triage kicks in(one in 5 deaths in the U.K. are linked to covid-19. "Care homes have been told not to admit residents from the care home to a hospital if they become ill from COVID-19" source twitter.com/CompassnInCare). Most countries are starting to regain control, others have chosen to go down the same path Italy and Iran did by lost control and trying to regain control.
16.04.2020 Without a true accurate death count(refer 14.04.2020), we can not know the undetected cases.
22.04.2020 Since the 14.04.2020 & 15.04.2020 some emerging data clearly shows inaccuracies in the data. 06.04.2020-07.04.2020(cases are always evenly spread thoughtout a infected country and the larger the number the smoother it becomes, a drop one day in detection in cases is all it is) has bad data, and correlates to 14.04.2020. U.S. Data
13.04.2020 20,444(1,928 day), Death % 10.41%
14.04.2020 21,972(1,528 day), Death % 7.47%
15.04.2020 23,476(1,504 day), Death % 6.85%
16.04.2020 25,871(2,395 day), Death % 10.20%
25.04.2020 Notes: Since 4th March 2020, Wednesdays usually will project an estimate average of around 25% increase in real deaths globally from Europe each week, data balancing. On 12.03.2020 WHO declared pandemic. Cases on exponential growth rate peaked at 13.9617036% on 23.03.2020. The deaths on exponential growth rate peaked at 15.1874455% on 16.03.2020, followed by second peak at 14.3061516% on 22.03.2020, and lower peaks at 13% on 29.03.2020 and 04.04.2020.
Eight criteria for SARS-CoV-2 challenge studies. Refer 20200507covid-19-sitrep-108
30.06.2020 The data above ends on 1st January 2021. This site is only to try and create the awareness that was needed for covid-19. The reflected figures show the world needs to be a cohesive unit with world leaders on the same page. To curve the spread rate in the poorer regions of the world like Africa and South America.
30.06.2020 Projected new figures from 30.06.2020 to 1st January 2021. The projected figures are under the real projection, and by the end of the year will be exceeding the projected figures here unless the world sorts out its inability to unite with guidelines by World Health Organization.
15.07.2020 Rebalanced figures.
WARNING, page here may well be deleted, a copy exists at web.archive.org. Changing to new ISP TPG, due to poor customer service from Exetel.
| Coronavirus Predictions for China, 2019-nCoV|
(Covid-19) Projected Predictions 3-9 day average
Patient Zero 11th Nov. to China's unknown 4000+ cases.
|Date||Projected Confirmed||Projected Deaths||Confirmed||Deaths||Quarantined|
|Data end - 0 case in China epicentre Wuhan 18.03.2020.|
All other cases are from other provinces on 18.03.2020.
|Confirmed % is the change from prior day to current date change in percentage. Death % is the change from prior day to current date change in percentage. The below gives a slight idea of the accuracy of the data being received each day.|
|25.01.2020 From the hospitalization period to death, the average estimation of median days being from
7-8 days(Bear in mind median days from first symptom to death were 14.0). We should in theory see from any
large spike from the Confirmed %, see a spike in the deaths %, at 1-8-14 days later. The 64.54% would appear to represent a
abnormality in the data, Chinese state media have reported test kit shortages and processing bottlenecks (source New York Times Feb. 2,
2020. Wuhan Coronavirus Looks Increasingly Like a Pandemic, Experts Say).
2.02.2020 Extra Info: The median days from first symptom to death were 14.0. The median time from onset of symptoms to first hospital admission was 7.0 days (4.0-8.0), to shortness of breath was 8.0 days (5.0-13.0), to ARDS was 9.0 days (8.0-14.0), to mechanical ventilation was 10.5 days (7.0-14.0), and to ICU admission was 10.5 days.
12.02.2020 and onward, are now reporting both clinically diagnosed and lab-confirmed. China's released doubled up data on the 12th, creating bad data for deaths from 12th to 13th as the balancing it out period on 13th.
If you have fever, cough and difficulty breathing seek medical care asap, this info could change to your area being anyone with flu symptoms or cough or fever or loss of smell to self-quarantine. Due to the info available on coronavirus changing so frequently, please see WHO Coronavirus Q&A info page on the latest and up to date info.
8.03.2020 China has won the fight, paving a way for the rest of the world. The sooner the world mass quarantine itself, the sooner this ends. With 20% cases are serious and out of that 20%, 6% is critical, the governments have no choice but they must comply sooner or later before the deaths skyrocket by the health systems being overwhelmed. The only short term golden opportunity the world has is slipping away rapidly. The most humane thing any country can do right now is mass quarantine any heavily infected areas(cases under 100-2000), and 2-3 months later be clear of the virus, before it escalates and that time frame be extended to 6 months or beyond. Mass quarantine must happen, it's a question of is it going to be sooner to save many lives and economies recover much sooner. Or procrastinate with a heavy death toll and economies risk of going into another 2nd recession for end June, or worse a great depression (not depression) being a very strong as an outlook if all wait till it's too late. Note, China used masks, and tcm on mild cases with the later a 33% improvement. China also noted 2 distinct strains, refer bottom of the page here (The Mutation of 2 strains).
12.03.2020 World Health Organization
The World Health Organization has declared the global coronavirus crisis is now a pandemic, expressing alarm both about mounting infections and slow government responses. "We have called every day for countries to take urgent and aggressive action. We have rung the alarm bell loud and clear," WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in Geneva overnight. "All countries can still change the course of this pandemic. If countries detect, test, treat, isolate, trace and mobilize their people in the response".
14.03.2020 World Health Organization - Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus
"Europe has now become the epicentre of the pandemic, with more reported cases and deaths than the rest of the world combined, apart from China". "Do not just let this fire burn." Not testing alone. Not contact tracing alone. Not quarantine alone. Not social distancing alone. Do it all. Any country that looks at the experience of other countries with large epidemics and thinks “that won’t happen to us” is making a deadly mistake. It can happen to any country. The experience of China, the Republic of Korea, Singapore and others clearly demonstrates that aggressive testing and contact tracing, combined with social distancing measures and community mobilization, can prevent infections and save lives".
"There are simple, effective things we can all do to reduce the risk of infection for ourselves and those around us. Clean your hands regularly with an alcohol-based rub or soap and water. Cover your mouth and nose with a disposable tissue or your elbow if you cough or sneeze. Stay home and self-isolate from others if you’re sick or feel unwell. Avoid close contact of 1 meter with people who are unwell. Avoid unnecessary travel and large social gatherings. Comply with the advice of your local or national health authority. Find and share reliable information".
"Support World Health Organization, funds raised will be used to coordinate the response, to buy masks, gloves, gowns and goggles for health workers, to buy diagnostic tests etc. To give to the COVID-19 Solidarity Response Fund, go to who.int, and look for the orange “Donate” button at the top of the page @ www.who.int/Covid19ResponseFund."
End of WHO
Full CDC China report breakdown, Age, Patients, deaths, and case fatality rates.
China case statistics on 72,314 Cases, February 11, 2020, CDC
Confirmed cases: 44,672 (61.78%)
Suspected cases: 16,186 (22.38%)
Diagnosed cases: 10,567 (14.61%)
Asymptomatic cases: 889 (1.23%)
Age distribution (N=44,672)
≥80 years: 3% (1408 cases)
30-79 years: 87% (38,680 cases)
20-29 years: 8% (3619 cases)
10-19 years: 1% (549 cases)
≤10 years: 1% (416 cases)
Spectrum of disease (N=44,415)
Mild: 81.41% (36,160 cases)
Severe: 13.89% (6168 cases)
Critical: 4.70% (2087 cases)
2.3% (1023 of 44,672 confirmed cases)
14.8% in patients aged ≥80 years (208 of 1408)
8.0% in patients aged 70-79 years (312 of 3918)
49.0% in critical cases (1023 of 2087)
Health care personnel infected
3.8% (1716 of 44,672)
63% in Wuhan (1080 of 1716)
14.8% cases classified as severe or critical (247 of 1668)
Notes: 62% diagnosis based on positive viral nucleic acid test results on a throat swab. 22% diagnosis based on symptoms and exposures only, no test was performed because testing capacity is insufficient to meet current needs. 15% this designation is being used in Hubei Province only; in these cases, no test was performed but the diagnosis was made based on symptoms, exposures, and presence of lung imaging features consistent with coronavirus pneumonia. 1% diagnosis by positive viral nucleic acid test result but lacking typical symptoms including fever, dry cough, and fatigue. COVID-19 rapidly spread from a single city to the entire country in just 30 days, and quickly overwhelmed health and public health services in China.
19.03.2020 World Health Organization - SOLIDARITY trial
Multiple small trials with different methodologies may not give us the clear, strong evidence we need about which treatments help to save lives. WHO and it's partners are therefore organizing a study in many countries in which some of these untested treatments are compared with each other. This large, international study is designed to generate the robust data we need, to show which treatments are the most effective. We have called this study the SOLIDARITY trial. The SOLIDARITY trial provides simplified procedures to enable even hospitals that have been overloaded to participate. Many countries have already confirmed that they will join the SOLIDARITY trial - Argentina, Bahrain, Canada, France, Iran, Norway, South Africa, Spain, Switzerland and Thailand - and I trust many more will join. (22.04,2020 100 countries have either joined the trial or are in the process of joining)
20.03.2020 Patient Zero 11th November to China's undetected 4000+ cases. Raises the question of how widely spread has the coronavirus become in the rest of the world?
Sciencemag.org for every confirmed case there are most likely 5 to 10 people in the community with undetected infections. science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221.
The race to detect the undetected cases is on sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/new-blood-tests-antibodies-could-show-true-scale-coronavirus-pandemic
27.03.2020 As many as 3-10 percent of recovered coronavirus patients in China have tested positive again, according to medical experts.
03.04.2020 The data percentage change in totals difference per day changes so drastically since 26.03.2020. Since 26.03.2020 new cases have wildly fluctuated from 26% all the way to 0%, high lightening the fact some serious testing kit issues or very poor data. The wild fluctuations issue is unlike anywhere else in the world where it's constant and mild changes in percentages. WHO situation reports has 0% increase in cases from 29.03.2020 to 30.03.2020. All data seems completely flawed that WHO has been supplied from Australia. It's like someone put the brakes on testing or flawed data. Even with 15min test kits(usually for a low number on Monday means it's a 2-day test kit), why was there no massive jump on Monday 30.03.2020 or Tuesday 31.03.2020 for all the sick ones on Sunday. There will always be X amount of cases each day emerging.
Australian total cases per day
02.04.2020 Signs and Symptoms CoVid-19, Coronavirus.
03.04.2020 Australian Scientists from Monash University's Biomedicine Discovery Institute (BDI) in Melbourne, Australia, with the Peter Doherty Institute of Infection and Immunity (Doherty Institute) have shown that an anti-parasitic drug already available around the world can kill the virus within 48 hours. Ivermectin, is already an FDA-approved anti-parasitic, the research now needs to figure out if the safe dosages are still effective on the virus in humans.
"We found that even a single dose(via Petri dish) could essentially remove all viral RNA by 48 hours and that even at 24 hours there was a really significant reduction in it," said Dr Kylie Wagstaff.
5.04.2020 Here in Australia we are lucky still to have low numbers by the contact tracing and measures taken. The spikes from Bondi beaches and alike have settled with the data prevailing still a future growth rate. But a month ago 4.04.2020 the average in new cases per day was less than 10 per day compared to 200+ per day new cases atm and should not be looked upon as a manageable containment number. At the current growth rate for the future, it's alarmingly very high(or even growth to 100+).
8.04.2020 World Health Organization - Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus
"I also want to thank the President of Costa Rica, President Carlos Alvarado, and the Health Minister, Daniel Salas, for their proposal to create a pool of rights to tests, medicines and vaccines, with free access or licensing on reasonable and affordable terms for all countries. Muchas gracias, Mr President.
Poorer countries and fragile economies stand to face the biggest shock from this pandemic, and leaving anyone unprotected will only prolong the health crisis and harm economies more. I call on all countries, companies and research institutions to support open data, open science and open collaboration so that all people can enjoy the benefits of science and research."
A new report issued by WHO, Nursing Now and the International Council of Nurses reveals a global shortfall of 5.9 million nurses.
11.04.2020 South Korean officials have reported 91 patients thought cleared of the new coronavirus had tested positive again. Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), told a briefing yesterday the virus may have been "reactivated" rather than the patients being re-infected. source 9news.com.au
16.04.2020 The statistics show the higher the concentrations of cases are in countries with a phenomenal exponential growth rate emerging have a higher tendency for the death rate to accelerate compared to earlier data from those countries. Despite the means, death delay rate at 8 days, and that period is from diagnosis to death. All raw data is supplied by WHO. Other factors will be hygiene and typical customs like shaking hands and kissing on cheeks, high dense built-up areas, plus seasons.
17.04.2020 It's interesting the whole world at times keeps saying why did China not tell us. What do they mean no one told them? China lockdown 50mil, and kept going until it was a full-on martial law and the world ignored this but criticized the steps needed to save lives. Most normal people that acknowledge this and the world did nothing, why? Are the leaders in shock during this period or all completely ignorant? As the data suggests it's the only solution to containing an insane growth rate. While going through the figures on China daily data and seeing the exponential growth rate the world continue on ignoring it, why???????? Go and compile the exponential growth rate being at 55.06% for that day in new cases from the 24.01.2020 to see how many people would be infected by one month in the future if that growth rate was allowed to continue << this is why China locked down with martial law, as that data shows in 2 days the cases will double. The exponential rate is so alarmingly high it's why this site's data exists now to show the obvious where the virus was heading back on 24.01.2020. Why does the world keep saying why did China not tell us? This is simple maths and the data was there for everyone in the world.
The writing was clear as day what the world needed to adapt immediately in the early part of February(examine the world low case numbers at the time WHO copy link above), and there was no response like stunned mullets. When China locked down 50 million, look at the 24.01.2020 the growth rate was 55.06% in new cases from the previous day cases. Posted above on 8.03.2020 the info posted made it clear what needed to be done. Why was no government in the world alarmed by this alone? Patient Zero reading this page look at the raw MINIMUM undetected amount of PROJECTED cases there were at the time is even more alarming. China was a dog chasing its tail(see link 2 lines up) until doctors were allowed on the 12.02.2020 to reporting both clinically diagnosed and lab-confirmed, testing was not needed and clinically diagnosed halted it in its tracks. Why when the data told the world how deadly this virus was back in 24.01.2020 every country just about had to go down the path like Italy and Iran when it was already well-known by China's data when the rest of the world had no intentions at the time to enforce martial law. Why was the race for 2 new hospitals on? China knew the health system was going to collapse, and the world follows this path.
The 19th or 26th A Sunday, January 2020, Australian afternoon, one news source in the world released the info it can be spread asymptomatically, was ignored until 3-4 days later until the world acknowledged this info from China and basically discredited it, instead of let's prove it wrong but we acknowledge it as true to safeguard each country as the safe route(further info 20.03.2020 see Sciencemag.org info above). 27.03.2020 above is details and follows:: China also stated patients that had recovered had contracted it again or it reactivated, but again was mainly ignored and finally later proven. By Korea CDC 11.04.2020 "the virus may have been "reactivated" rather than the patients being re-infected". Every time China gives a heads up, it falls on death ears.
As for the origins of CoVid 19 was it from China's biolab? China stated to the media it's not and WHO backed this, but don't have a source of WHO validating this(or a genuine source for the alleged allegations towards China from the Departments in America except word of mouth from media), 7news had the info. And then America had an Army biolab closure back in prior 05.08.2019, then army games thereafter in China. There are a number of factors to consider and why multiple countries are charging away blaming someone instead of a focus like WHO in saving lives.
24.04.2020 World Health Organization - Situation Report – 94
All available evidence for COVID-19 suggests that SARS-CoV-2 has a zoonotic source. Many researchers have been able to look at the genomic features of SARS-CoV-2 and have found that evidence does not support that SARS-CoV-2 is a laboratory construct. A constructed virus would show a mix of known elements within genomic sequences – this is not the case.
25.04.2020 World Health Organization
Guidance for national food safety doc
Water, sanitation, hygiene, and waste management doc
WHO’s courses Health Security Learning Platform doc